Saturday, April 16, 2011

Libya and other parts of the Arab world: an emerging doctine of intervention

The situation in Libya is still unpredictable, with Western air-strikes producing mixed result, much damage to Gaddafi's forces, and 'collateral damage' as well, which is diplo-speak for casualties to civilians. What started as 'no-fly zone' enforcement has become an open effort to oust Gaddafi. That this regime is deplorable and is unfit to govern is entirely clear to much of the world. And its actions against the Libyan people are also reprehensible. But does that justify armed intervention from overseas?

Brazil, China, India, Germany and Russia abstained on the UN Security Council resolution. The BRICS summit that met in China this week repeated that unease. And now we see 'mission creep' underway, with the original goal widened, with a possibility that the intervention, currently led by NATO will also get broader in scope and method.

Will such interventions follow in Somalia or elsewhere, places where breakdown in governance is no less? Or is oil a trigger for the West? And how will these actions impact on popular uprisings, in varying degrees of intensity, that seem to roil other parts of the Arab world?

Do we see a new twist on a 'responsibility to protect' doctrine that first emerged at the UN General Assembly in 2005?