15
April 2013
President
Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenya
Last week the newly elected President
assumed office in Nairobi. It took me back to the wonderful two-and-half years
I spent in that enchanting country in 1984-86. In those days Daniel arap Moi
was the country’s President and Mwai Kibaki was then Vice President. I have
written about those days, in my first book Inside Diplomacy (2000). I was
fortunate in making several visits to Kenya in 2009-11, and learnt more about
the country and region. Of course Nairobi will also figure prominently in my
memoir, which is half-written; I hope to complete that book by the end of this
year.
Kenya has longbeen the star of East
Africa, the most advanced economy and a land with huge potential. And it did
not, for long, quite fulfill that potential. Some thoughts:
1. For
the great part the country gave room to its entrepreneurs, and furnished
reasonable infrastructure; Africans and ‘Asians’ led the growth of industry and
business, notwithstanding occasional bouts of ethnic frenzy, the most recent in
2007-08. But the system has not been able to tackle massive unemployment.
2. Unlike
Tanzania, Kenya and the other neighbors did not overcome tribal fissures. It
seems a paradox that while Founder-President Julius Nyerere managed to create a
Tanzanian national identity in which tribal issues were overcome, the same
Nyerere failed to get that country’s economy to move to high gear, unlike
Kenya. Is there a moral here that we need to understand?
3. The
East African Community is now finally moving forward, having expanded to
include Burundi and Rwanda, with South Sudan waiting in the wings. Uganda is
also on the move. Kenya has a special role to play in the EAC.
4. Tourism
is the great money-spinner for all these countries, and here too Kenya is now
doing well. This is the reason the smooth election process in 2013, and
stability, is so important, for this country and for the entire region.
5. Across
this region, the ‘Asians’ have been a positive force, and in the eyes of most
Africans, the internal political segmentation of these ‘mohindi’ does not
matter. As Indians and Pakistanis we can learn from this. I wonder if you know
of ‘The Indus Entrepreneurs’ [https://www.tie.org ], a remarkable collection of
South Asian diaspora, who focus on venture capital and entrepreneurship, again
on a basis that is deliberately blind to political division. Should we in South
Asia not learn from these diaspora situations?
President Kenyatta faces charges at the
ICC, flowing from the flawed election process of 2007 and its aftermath. But
for me that is a sideshow. His real challenge is at home, and if he succeeds in
providing good governance, that should take care of his principal tasks.
Rwanda and Uganda have also done well,
though I have no first-hand knowledge of either country.
16 April 2013
‘The Times of India’ in its issue of 15
April [can you believe: it is currently the
largest circulation English newspaper in the world?], carried a
thoughtful editorial-page lead article on India’s local level elected institutions,
which have come to be known by the name Nehru gave them in the 1950s – ‘Panchayat Raj’. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Panchayati-raj-or-collector-raj/articleshow/19545157.cms
These institutions are part of an
ancient Indian heritage, which fell into disuse over time, and were destroyed
under British rule. But even after their official revival, they have sadly been
under-used, in effect given little authority, because Indian officials and
local level politicians, are loathe to share power with them. The latter much
prefer weak institutions that can be manipulated, which can neither demand
accountability, nor hold officials and politicians responsible for misuse of
funds and gross misgovernance.
But the story is not altogether dismal.
In many villages and local communities, information technology has empowered
the Panchayat institutions, despite
obstacles. Some officials have also been supportive. The Right to Information
Act (now part of what Indians call an ‘RTA movement’) has also shown many
communities that they can demand accountability. Young activists, even college
students visit distant villages to spread the word; ten years back, while in
college, our grand-daughter spent some weeks of hot summer in small villages that
had no electricity, as a volunteer with some 20 others working in one such movement.
A related development is the Indian
government’s move to shift to direct bank transfers of cash payment to those
‘Below the Poverty Line’. The concept is borrowed from Brazil’s Bolsa Famila. The aim is to do away with
subventions of food and fuel, which reach the poor only in a small percentage
of the original intended payment, thanks to ‘leaky buckets’, in the memorable
words of Arthur Okun. Rajiv Gandhi as PM once said that barely 10% of the funds
reach the poor.
This is one of the development dramas
of India, organically linked with similar processes under way in much of Asia,
as well as Africa and Latin America, part of the transition of traditional
society into a modern age.
As often, the glass is only half-full.
19 April 2013
Indian newspapers today carry an
interesting story of what happens in a country that has witnessed good economic
growth for several years, and thereafter, in a self inflicted mood of hubris,
compounded by inaction on an essential reform agenda, faces real slowdown. The
times of India story is at: ow.ly/kdkwb
Immediately after the global economic
recession of 2008, it seemed that India, with its cautious banking policy and
controls on capital movements, had weathered the storm. But a couple of years
later, economic reforms stalled, and the political leadership seemed inactive,
virtually assuming that India had achieved economic take-off, and growth was on
autopilot. Consequently, in 2012, GDP growth came down to under 6%. Today's
figures, giving the foreign trade scene during the financial year 2012-13 again
confirm this economic slowdown.
Over the last 8 years, India's exports
have grown each year at between 10 and 20%. In FY 13, exports have fallen by
1.7%. Worse, at a total of 300 billion, they have missed the target by $50
billion. Imports, at $491 billion, have grown by a mere 0.4%. India needs much
higher exports as well as imports to sustain its economic momentum. The gap
between exports and imports, is $190, which again is a commodity trade deficit
that India can ill afford. Asked about the current financial year, Commerce
Minister Anand Sharma refused to hazard a guess, citing uncertainty in global
markets. Fortunately, the commerce ministry has implemented a number of
measures, which are aimed at renewing export growth. Let us hope this delivers
result. Indian industry and exporters are a hardy lot, and will surely rise to
the challenge. Facing national elections in just about a year, the Manmohan
Singh government seems finally clear on giving a real push to economic reforms;
a number of good measures have been launched in the past four months.
The above figures do not include the
invisibles, especially IT services, which continue to do well. The manner in
which the information industry has grown in India since the 1980s, is an example
of that part of India which ‘Grows at Night’, to use the title of Gurcharan
Das’s interesting book. The IT industry has thrived primarily through its own
efforts, with just a limited amount of official support, and an absence of over
regulation, which is, alas, a major Indian trait. As India's consul general in
San Francisco, from 1986 to 1989, I was fortunate to both witness, and make a
small contribution to that initial marketing of Indian IT services. I wrote about
this in my 1st book, ‘Inside Diplomacy’ (2000), and the theme will figure again
in my memoir, which I hope to complete by the end of this year.
